Questioning My Goal Pace

Last week’s workouts have me questioning my 10 km (6.2 mile) goal pace. My goal for this training block is to make a new PB. Eventually, I want to run a sub-50 minute 10K. My 10K personal best (PB) from a November 2021 time trial I ran in my neighborhood is 53:48 (8:40 min/mi; 5:23 min/km). My recent magic mile time was 7:13; Jeff Galloway’s Magic Mile Calculator suggests that a 51:34 10K (8:18 min/mi; 5:09 min/km) may be possible. I set my sights on an 8:20 min/mi (5:11 min/km) pace for a sub-52 10K (51:47).

I have been using Hal Higdon’s 8-week Advanced 10K training program. During the first two weeks, I was able to hit the paces for the speed work, pace runs, and tempo runs. Last week I struggled with both the pace run and tempo run. I’m having difficulty determining if the weather, wind, hills, diet, and fueling affect my pacing or if I am biting off more than I can chew.

I looked back at my training log, and the last time I trained for a 10K was in the fall of 2021. The goal was a sub-55 minute 10K, and my previous PB was 58:33. I succeeded with the plan in 2021 and will stay the course for 2023.

Determining paces for races is the most challenging part of running for me. What can you share about your pacing experiences? I would love to read about them in the comments below.


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